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The original was posted on /r/collapse by /u/2everland on 2024-05-23 15:05:32+00:00.
“Forecast for named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes is the highest NOAA has ever issued”, says NOAA Admin Rick Spinrad.
The weather agency predicts 17-25 named storms, 8-13 hurricanes, and 4-7 major hurricanes (Cat 3 or 4 or 5+) with 70% confidence in these ranges.
As one of the strongest El Ninos ever observed nears its end, NOAA scientists predict a quick transition to La Nina conditions, which are conducive to Atlantic hurricane activity because La Nina tends to lessen wind shear in the tropics. At the same time, abundant oceanic heat content in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea creates more energy to fuel storm development.
This hurricane season also features the potential for an above-normal west African monsoon, which can produce African easterly waves that seed some of the strongest and longer-lived Atlantic storms. Finally, light trade winds allow hurricanes to grow in strength without the disruption of strong wind shear, and also minimize ocean cooling.
Human-caused climate change is warming our ocean globally and in the Atlantic basin, and melting ice on land, leading to sea level rise, which increases the risk of storm surge. Sea level rise represents a clear human influence on the damage potential from a given hurricane.
Atlantic hurricane season is between June 1st and November 30st.