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The original was posted on /r/monero by /u/OrdinaryCatch3772 on 2024-07-07 06:42:43+00:00.

Hello everyone, this theard to share and exchange a thought I had the other day: I think the Flippening will happen, but that Monero will be the first crypto to overtake Bitcoin.

I’m not saying it’s going to happen soon, but I’m convinced that, in the long term, Monero will overtake Bitcoin. We’re talking more than 20-30 years here.

Let me explain my thoughts: Bitcoin is the first crypto in market cap since 2008, having solved several problems we all know about: anti-fragility, network resilience, Byzantine Generals Problem and so on.

Bitcoin’ success is due to a first mover advantage and a network effect, which make it untouchable today in terms of size, adoption and visibility.

However, Bitcoin has real problems that are preventing its mass adoption: non-fungibility, non-anonymity, network congestion and so on. I don’t even want to talk about non-inflation after 2140, for the sake of concreteness.

As Bitcoin is still not used massively by people, these problems only arise marginally. However, I think that the tainted Bitcoin trick will quickly become problematic for Bitcoin holders.

Indeed, as all transactions are traceable, Bitcoin tokens linked to dubious addresses are tainted, and therefore perceived as not being ‘full and real’ Bitcoin, accepted everywhere like any other.

A brief aside, this is why saying ‘1 BTC = 1 BTC’ is stupid, whereas ‘1 XMR = 1 XMR’ is perfectly true.

Now, with the progress of on-chain analysis relying on AI, it is very likely that more and more Bitcoins will become tainted, either by contagion or by the identification of new tainted Bitcoins.

Bitcoin holders will find themselves increasingly at risk of seeing their savings lose quality. And in your opinion, how can they guard against this risk with the minimum of risk on fundamentals? Monero.

I therefore believe that we will see massive transfers from Bitcoin holding to Monero holding, with a sharp rise in the XMR-BTC pair, and therefore ultimately a potential flippening of Monero.

I don’t think it happens all at once, but very gradually over time. It’ll probably be invisible on a day-to-day basis, but I think all the parameters are there for it.

What do you think?