This is the best summary I could come up with:

During a meeting in Moscow back in March, Russian President Vladimir Putin told his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping that Russia “will fight for [at least] five years” in Ukraine, sources have revealed.

Whether Xi was convinced, Putin’s remark at the summit holds the key to understanding a series of mysterious developments in Russia-China relations, from a Chinese peace mission to Europe in May to China sacking its foreign minister months later.

But given Putin’s words to Xi in March, revealed by multiple sources familiar with diplomatic maneuvering between China and Russia, the Russian leader’s reported intentions for a cease-fire should not be taken at face value.

If the war between Russia and Ukraine grows more prolonged, it would significantly impact plans and ambitions Xi has for his unprecedented third term as China’s president and Chinese Communist Party general secretary.

To make matters worse, less than a month later, in June, Wagner, the Russian private military organization led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, who held the key to fighting in Ukraine, launched a short-lived rebellion, giving Putin a close call.

It is important to keep in mind that conversations between the Chinese and Russian leaders in 2023, especially Putin’s March remark about prolonging the Ukraine war, can have ramifications on the security of Japan and the entire Indo-Pacific region.

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