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The original was posted on /r/collapse by /u/StarkvonHohenzollern on 2023-11-05 08:00:39.

Firstly, this isn’t a post about saying, that solar panels aren’t a suitable option for development, but I am sure, that not for the one, that’s used in the news. I will at least partly and “economically” present, what I found on the internet. It isn’t a study, but I would just a bit of counter-argument to some studies, that show how solar panels and wind turbines will save our way of live.

Cost of production Europe

  • As many of you know, that China is Leader in the production of solar modules, I mean, China isn’t just Leader, but almost only country, where are solar modules produced and that is important thing to hold in mind for later. 1
  • There are many incentives in China, that are behind this stark picture of solar module industry, I won’t dive in to this one, but Cheap and skilled labour, cheap electricity, artificially weak currency are the most important among them. 2
  • EU has put a program, that tries to incentivize a more production in Europe, but the most important questions are :
    • " Will they be enough competitive against China ?"
    • " Will they save our energy transition or destroy it ?"

I will count in years of saved electricity bill, it will be much simpler than in money, but It will put a solar panel lifespan of 30 years to the picture.

Facts behind 30 years lifespan:

  • So 30 years is a limit, It surely is a lower limit, because many of you would say, that solar panels have a “almost” unlimited lifespan, they only lose in efficiency.
  • From certain point, It won’t be economical to service them in the later life, so they would need to be replaced and recycled.

Facts for calculation :

  • So in the Europe payback of solar systems is around 8-10 years. 3
  • Incentives / Subsidies. I haven’t found a broader picture to quantify enough in the EU, but either tax breaks or subsidies are implemented. And from companies, that surely have elevated percentage of solar system covered by subsidies, have a number almost 50%. But I will stick with lower number around 40%.
  • European companies aren’t competitive against Chinese. Some say, they have almost twice cost of production. They are influenced by instability of electricity prices, so we could lower it to 1.5 cost of production in the near term. 4
  • Cost mainly driven by higher energy / electricity (interlinked) prices and higher cost of labour and artificially weaker currency of China.

Calculations European production for customer:

payback= 8 years

Subsidies=0.4 [%/100]

Cost of production=1.5

real payback=payback*(1/(1-subsidies))*Cost of production=8*1/0.6*1.5= 20 years

So a real solar panel manufactured in the Europe would either bought you a 1.5 solar panel in the end of his lifespan or 0.5 electricity of solar panel would be useful for your needs. This isn’t even throughout picture of the manufacture process. It would need many hours of work to properly calculate real cost of production of solar panel, because even through solar panels is manufactured in Europe, It still could be a lot of Chinese components, that are lowering a price.

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