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The original was posted on /r/cfb by /u/GameGeek720 on 2023-11-06 18:40:27.
After watching the University of Cincinnati Bearcats lose yet another game in which they out gained their opponents, I compiled the offensive yards and offensive points per game for every FBS team and graphed the results.
This confirmed my suspicions that the Bearcats are terrible at turning yards into points.
In fact, they are the absolute worst at it, and by a wide margin. Based on the trend, the Cats are missing about 9.01 points per game given their total offensive yardage, over 1.5 points worse than the 2nd worst UTEP team. That’s worse by half a standard deviation, and nobody besides those two are worse than 2 standard deviations from the mean.
Below is the full chart if you would like to see where your team falls in this metric. A larger positive value for missing points per game is worse.
Rk | Team | Offense/G | Points/G | Exp Points/G | Missing/G | Z-Score |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Cincinnati | 452.30 | 25.30 | 34.31 | 9.01 | 2.66 |
2 | UTEP | 362.00 | 18.10 | 25.43 | 7.33 | 2.16 |
3 | TCU | 462.10 | 29.20 | 35.27 | 6.07 | 1.79 |
4 | Middle Tennessee | 388.60 | 21.90 | 28.05 | 6.15 | 1.81 |
5 | Troy | 437.10 | 27.20 | 32.81 | 5.61 | 1.66 |
6 | Baylor | 391.20 | 22.70 | 28.30 | 5.60 | 1.65 |
7 | UCLA | 445.40 | 28.60 | 33.63 | 5.03 | 1.48 |
8 | UCF | 483.70 | 32.80 | 37.39 | 4.59 | 1.35 |
9 | Illinois | 366.10 | 21.10 | 25.84 | 4.74 | 1.40 |
10 | Charlotte | 322.90 | 16.80 | 21.59 | 4.79 | 1.41 |
11 | Arizona State | 332.80 | 17.80 | 22.57 | 4.77 | 1.41 |
12 | Temple | 360.30 | 20.60 | 25.27 | 4.67 | 1.38 |
13 | South Florida | 453.70 | 30.40 | 34.44 | 4.04 | 1.19 |
14 | UL Monroe | 338.60 | 18.90 | 23.14 | 4.24 | 1.25 |
15 | New Mexico State | 425.60 | 27.80 | 31.68 | 3.88 | 1.15 |
16 | Stanford | 361.00 | 21.30 | 25.34 | 4.04 | 1.19 |
17 | Coastal Carolina | 446.20 | 30.00 | 33.71 | 3.71 | 1.09 |
18 | UAB | 452.00 | 30.80 | 34.28 | 3.48 | 1.03 |
19 | Boston College | 411.70 | 26.90 | 30.32 | 3.42 | 1.01 |
20 | Wisconsin | 375.70 | 23.60 | 26.78 | 3.18 | 0.94 |
21 | Southern Miss | 369.70 | 23.00 | 26.19 | 3.19 | 0.94 |
22 | Tulsa | 363.30 | 22.40 | 25.56 | 3.16 | 0.93 |
23 | Michigan State | 319.10 | 18.20 | 21.22 | 3.02 | 0.89 |
24 | North Texas | 482.30 | 34.80 | 37.25 | 2.45 | 0.72 |
25 | Boise State | 434.30 | 30.00 | 32.54 | 2.54 | 0.75 |
26 | Georgia Tech | 465.30 | 33.20 | 35.58 | 2.38 | 0.70 |
27 | Ohio | 351.70 | 21.80 | 24.42 | 2.62 | 0.77 |
28 | Arkansas State | 379.10 | 24.60 | 27.11 | 2.51 | 0.74 |
29 | Arizona | 439.80 | 30.80 | 33.08 | 2.28 | 0.67 |
30 | Virginia | 361.90 | 23.10 | 25.42 | 2.32 | 0.69 |
31 | Purdue | 339.90 | 20.90 | 23.26 | 2.36 | 0.70 |
32 | Marshall | 359.30 | 22.90 | 25.17 | 2.27 | 0.67 |
33 | UConn | 309.20 | 17.90 | 20.25 | 2.35 | 0.69 |
34 | Wake Forest | 350.40 | 22.10 | 24.29 | 2.19 | 0.65 |
35 | Houston | 381.00 | 25.20 | 27.30 | 2.10 | 0.62 |
36 | North Carolina | 518.80 | 39.10 | 40.84 | 1.74 | 0.51 |
37 | Colorado State | 391.80 | 26.30 | 28.36 | 2.06 | 0.61 |
38 | Sam Houston | 298.10 | 16.90 | 19.16 | 2.26 | 0.67 |
39 | Oklahoma State | 434.70 | 30.70 | 32.58 | 1.88 | 0.55 |
40 | Hawai’i | 343.40 | 21.50 | 23.61 | 2.11 | 0.62 |
41 | Kent State | 269.30 | 14.10 | 16.33 | 2.23 | 0.66 |
42 | Nevada | 302.80 | 17.60 | 19.62 | 2.02 | 0.60 |
43 | Ball State | 293.70 | 16.70 | 18.72 | 2.02 | 0.60 |
44 | Massachusetts | 359.50 | 23.50 | 25.19 | 1.69 | 0.50 |
45 | Texas State | 484.80 | 36.20 | 37.50 | 1.30 | 0.38 |
46 | San Diego State | 324.90 | 20.10 | 21.79 | 1.69 | 0.50 |
47 | South Alabama | 431.80 | 30.90 | 32.29 | 1.39 | 0.41 |
48 | Indiana | 310.20 | 18.80 | 20.35 | 1.55 | 0.46 |
49 | Washington State | 414.20 | 29.30 | 30.56 | 1.26 | 0.37 |
50 | Akron | 292.60 | 17.10 | 18.62 | 1.52 | 0.45 |
51 | Florida | 409.40 | 28.90 | 30.09 | 1.19 | 0.35 |
52 | Western Michigan | 381.30 | 26.20 | 27.33 | 1.13 | 0.33 |
53 | Old Dominion | 363.30 | 24.40 | 25.56 | 1.16 | 0.34 |
54 | Tennessee | 466.40 | 34.80 | 35.69 | 0.89 | 0.26 |
55 | New Mexico | 393.00 | 27.40 | 28.48 | 1.08 | 0.32 |
56 | Virginia Tech | 354.00 | 23.60 | 24.65 | 1.05 | 0.31 |
57 | Nebraska | 317.30 | 19.90 | 21.04 | 1.14 | 0.34 |
58 | Miami | 437.90 | 32.10 | 32.89 | 0.79 | 0.23 |
59 | Navy | 300.30 | 18.30 | 19.37 | 1.07 | 0.32 |
60 | Florida International | 324.90 | 20.80 | 21.79 | 0.99 | 0.29 |
61 | Louisiana Tech | 383.30 | 26.70 | 27.53 | 0.83 | 0.24 |
62 | Tulane | 401.70 | 28.70 | 29.34 | 0.64 | 0.19 |
63 | South Carolina | 382.70 | 26.80 | 27.47 | 0.67 | 0.20 |
64 | Georgia Southern | 441.10 | 32.70 | 33.21 | 0.51 | 0.15 |
65 | Texas | 456.80 | 34.30 | 34.75 | 0.45 | 0.13 |
66 | Appalachian State | 451.80 | 34.00 | 34.26 | 0.26 | 0.08 |
67 | Louisville | 440.80 | 32.90 | 33.18 | 0.28 | 0.08 |
68 | Clemson | 402.00 | 29.00 | 29.36 | 0.36 | 0.11 |
69 | Army | 316.10 | 20.40 | 20.92 | 0.52 | 0.15 |
70 | Northern Illinois | 361.60 | 25.00 | 25.40 | 0.40 | 0.12 |
71 | Liberty | 501.00 | 39.10 | 39.09 | -0.01 | 0.00 |
72 | Missouri | 434.10 | 32.40 | 32.52 | 0.12 | 0.03 |
73 | Georgia State | 394.30 | 28.60 | 28.61 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
74 | Mississippi State | 335.70 | 22.70 | 22.85 | 0.15 | 0.04 |
75 | Pittsburgh | 314.90 | 20.70 | 20.81 | 0.11 | 0.03 |
76 | Syracuse | 353.00 | 24.60 | 24.55 | -0.05 | -0.01 |
77 | West Virginia | 419.40 | 31.40 | 31.07 | -0.33 | -0.10 |
78 | Texas Tech | 409.70 | 30.60 | 30.12 | -0.48 | -0.14 |
79 | Central Michigan | 339.80 | 23.70 | 23.25 | -0.45 | -0.13 |
80 | Utah | 352.10 | 25.00 | 24.46 | -0.54 | -0.16 |
81 | Georgia | 493.00 | 39.30 | 38.31 | -0.99 | -0.29 |
82 | Iowa State | 337.20 | 23.60 | 23.00 | -0.60 | -0.18 |
83 | California | 407.10 | 30.80 | 29.87 | -0.93 | -0.28 |
84 | East Carolina | 277.10 | 17.70 | 17.09 | -0.61 | -0.18 |
85 | UTSA | 410.70 | 31.20 | 30.22 | -0.98 | -0.29 |
86 | Utah State | 445.40 | 34.90 | 33.63 | -1.27 | -0.38 |
87 | Jacksonville State | 381.30 | 28.50 | 27.33 | -1.17 | -0.35 |
88 | Louisiana | 405.60 | 31.10 | 29.72 | -1.38 | -0.41 |
89 | LSU | 544.60 | 45.20 | 43.38 | -1.82 | -0.54 |
90 | James Madison | 425.40 | 33.20 | 31.66 | -1.54 | -0.45 |
91 | Western Kentucky | 382.60 | 28.90 | 27.46 | -1.44 | -0.43 |
92 | Washington | 509.10 | 41.70 | 39.89 | -1.81 | -0.53 |
93 | Oklahoma | 490.00 | 39.90 | 38.01 | -1.89 | -0.56 |
94 | Ole Miss | 478.90 | 38.80 | 36.92 | -1.88 | -0.55 |
95 | Minnesota | 308.80 | 21.70 | 20.21 | -1.49 | -0.44 |
96 | Maryland | 397.90 | 30.70 | 28.96 | -1.74 | -0.51 |
97 | Northwestern | 292.10 | 20.10 | 18.57 | -1.53 | -0.45 |
98 | Ohio State | 417.60 | 32.80 | 30.90 | -1.90 | -0.56 |
99 | Kansas State | 454.10 | 36.60 | 34.48 | -2.12 | -0.62 |
100 | Toledo | 432.00 | 34.40 | 32.31 | -2.09 | -0.62 |
101 | Florida Atlantic | 364.90 | 27.70 | 25.72 | -1.98 | -0.58 |
102 | Oregon State | 437.20 | 35.20 | 32.82 | -2.38 | -0.70 |
103 | Vanderbilt | 328.70 | 24.40 | 22.16 | -2.24 | -0.66 |
104 | Duke | 341.10 | 25.70 | 23.38 | -2.32 | -0.68 |
105 | Kansas | 434.00 | 35.10 | 32.51 | -2.59 | -0.76 |
106 | Auburn | 355.40 | 27.20 | 24.79 | -2.41 | -0.71 |
107 | Colorado | 389.70 | 30.70 | 28.16 | -2.54 | -0.75 |
108 | Buffalo | 324.00 | 24.40 | 21.70 | -2.70 | -0.80 |
109 | Texas A&M | 401.20 | 32.30 | 29.29 | -3.01 | -0.89 |
110 | Bowling Green | 299.90 | 22.40 | 19.33 | -3.07 | -0.91 |
111 | Eastern Michigan | 260.70 | 18.60 | 15.48 | -3.12 | -0.92 |
112 | NC State | 318.30 | 24.70 | 21.14 | -3.56 | -1.05 |
113 | BYU | 298.00 | 22.90 | 19.15 | -3.75 | -1.11 |
114 | San José State | 397.30 | 33.00 | 28.90 | -4.10 | -1.21 |
115 | Fresno State | 407.00 | 34.00 | 29.86 | -4.14 | -1.22 |
116 | Oregon | 539.80 | 47.40 | 42.90 | -4.50 | -1.33 |
117 | Air Force | 368.10 | 30.20 | 26.03 | -4.17 | -1.23 |
118 | SMU | 464.60 | 40.00 | 35.52 | -4.48 | -1.32 |
119 | Memphis | 454.80 | 39.20 | 34.55 | -4.65 | -1.37 |
120 | Alabama | 382.20 | 31.90 | 27.42 | -4.48 | -1.32 |
121 | Florida State | 458.30 | 39.60 | 34.90 | -4.70 | -1.39 |
122 | Rutgers | 330.90 | 26.80 | 22.38 | -4.42 | -1.30 |
123 | Wyoming | 302.10 | 23.90 | 19.55 | -4.35 | -1.28 |
124 | Miami (OH) | 357.60 | 29.80 | 25.00 | -4.80 | -1.42 |
125 | UNLV | 424.60 | 36.70 | 31.59 | -5.11 | -1.51 |
126 | Rice | 383.00 | 33.00 | 27.50 | -5.50 | -1.62 |
127 | Kentucky | 353.10 | 30.00 | 24.56 | -5.44 | -1.61 |
128 | Notre Dame | 418.00 | 36.80 | 30.94 | -5.86 | -1.73 |
129 | Arkansas | 325.30 | 27.90 | 21.83 | -6.07 | -1.79 |
130 | Iowa | 225.30 | 18.40 | 12.00 | -6.40 | -1.89 |
131 | USC | 485.50 | 45.50 | 37.57 | -7.93 | -2.34 |
132 | Michigan | 424.20 | 40.70 | 31.55 | -9.15 | -2.70 |
133 | Penn State | 394.00 | 40.20 | 28.58 | -11.62 | -3.43 |