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The original was posted on /r/soccer by /u/makz81 on 2025-01-29 22:00:24+00:00.

Zagreb is eliminated with 11 points. In 50,000 simulations conducted by Opta before the Champions League season, 11 points were enough to qualify in 100% of these simulations.

So, either Opta’s simulations are purely random or Zagreb just had incredibly bad luck. I guess Opta simply simulated with random results, should have used Football Manager instead.