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The original was posted on /r/nfl by /u/TormundIceBreaker on 2025-02-03 15:16:43+00:00.
This is from Mike Sando’s article on The Athletic: :
This isn’t exactly breaking news, but if a defense can take away Mahomes’ initial quick throws, force him to hold the ball and pressure him, beating the Chiefs becomes much easier.
Just about any football fan could tell us that, but the degree to which this appears true for Mahomes borders on the extreme.
The Chiefs have won 80 percent of Mahomes’ regular-season and playoff starts over the years, so when they lose, their defeats invite study. A striking pattern emerges when sorting Mahomes’ starts by average time to throw or sack. He wins almost all the games when the ball comes out of his hand quickly, while losing almost all the games when he holds the ball longest.
The correlation between winning and how quickly, on average, the quarterback throws the ball or takes a sack is stronger for Mahomes than for Allen and Jackson, other top quarterbacks with scrambling ability.
| Time to Throw | Mahomes W-L | Allen W-L | Jackson W-L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.3 - 2.8 | 31-2 (.939) | 22-3 (.880) | 5-4 (.556) |
| 2.81 - 3.0 | 40-5 (.888) | 24-9 (.727) | 18-5 (.783) |
| 3.01 - 3.3 | 31-11 (.738) | 24-19 (.558) | 34-10 (.773) |
| 3.31+ | 2-8 (.200) | 15-6 (.714) | 16-10 (.615) |
I thought it was interesting not just on its own but how different it is compared to Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. Wish he included more QBs in the sample; if anyone knows where to find that data I think it would be fascinating to compare all the top QBs to see the differences.