This is an automated archive made by the Lemmit Bot.
The original was posted on /r/Superstonk by /u/somermike on 2025-06-24 10:06:14+00:00.
Morning Apes! It looks like there’s at least a few of us working on some earnings estimates for Q2. That’s great as GME currently has very limited analyst coverage and I’d go so far as to say it has zero serious analyst coverage. Hopefully as we get closer to the reporting date, we can get compare the various sub projections and have a more realistic earnings expectation than in prior quarters.
Highlights > Commentary > Expanded Numbers > Additional Thoughts.
Quarterly Highlights:
| Metric | Q2 ’25E | Q1 ’25A | Q2 ’24A | YoY Δ | Seq. Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales | $805* | 732.4 | 798.3 | +0.8 % | +9.9 % |
| Gross margin | 32.3 % | 34.5 % | 31.2 % | +110 bp | -220 bp |
| Operating income (loss) | $30 | $(10.8) | $(22.0) | +$52 | +$41 |
| Net interest income | $60 | $56.9 | $39.5 | +51.2% | +5.4% |
| Net income | $81 | 44.8 | 14.8 | +447.3% | +80.8% |
| EPS | $0.18 | 0.10 | 0.04 | +350% | +80% |
| Cash & equivalents | $8.62 bn | 6.39 bn | 4.20 bn | +105.2% | +34.9% |
| Digital assets (BTC) | $0.45 bn | — | — | ||
| Convertible notes (0 % 2030) | $3.71 bn | 1.48 bn | — | +250% |
Earnings are lower than I expected off the first few passes at this. I had $0.25 as the number in my head from reading through Q1 and landing on $0.18 feels like I’m low on revenue or high on costs. That’s pretty much my current fight between a Switch 2 revenue bump and fewer stores / general retail slowdown. I’m almost certain I end up revising EPS upwards from this conservative position.
Diluted EPS takes a big hit with 70M+ shares hitting the forward pool from Bond 2.0. Expect this to be the primary news bullet, similar to “Declining revenues” from Q1.
Book Value here raises slightly again from $11.16/share in Q1 to $11.25 in Q2 and forward projections there grow even stronger as GME continues to raise cash above it’s current trading range.
New Diluted BVPS = $9520 (Projected Q2 Assets) - $1000 (Projected Q2 Liabilites - Bond 1 - Bond 2) / 575 (447M Shares + 50M B1 + 78M B2) = $14.81 – This converts all bond debt to the associated shares at the initial conversion. No forward growth of assets projected here. I don’t believe there’s anything that tracks this as an official metric, but I do this to get a sense of what things might look like post conversion in a worst-case (no growth) scenario.
Expanded but still condensed numbers below.
Condensed Statements of Operations.
| Metric | Q2 ’25E | Q1 ’25A | Q2 ’24A |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales | $805.0 | 732.4 | 798.3 |
| Cost of sales | 545.0 | 479.6 | 549.5 |
| Gross profit | 260.0 | 252.8 | 248.8 |
| SG&A | 230.0 | 228.1 | 270.8 |
| Asset impairments | — | 35.5 | — |
| Operating income (loss) | 30.0 | (10.8) | (22.0) |
| Net interest income | 60.0 | 56.9 | 39.5 |
| Other income / (expense) | 0.5 | (2.2) | 0.0 |
| Income before taxes | 90.5 | 48.3 | 17.5 |
| Income-tax expense (10 % ETR) | 9.5 | 3.5 | 2.7 |
| Net income | $81.0 | 44.8 | 14.8 |
| Basic / diluted EPS | $0.18 / 0.14 | 0.10 / 0.09 | 0.04/ 0.04 |
| Wtd-avg shares basic / diluted (m) | 447.1 / 576 | 447.1 / 497.9 | 386.4 / 387.2 |
Condensed Balance Sheet
| Metric | Jul 31 ’25E | May 3 ’25A | Aug 3 ’24A |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & equivalents | $8,620 | 6,385.8 | 4,204.0 |
| Digital assets (BTC) | 450 | — | — |
| Inventories | 450 | 421.3 | 560.0 |
| Total assets | ~9,520 | 7,502.6 | 5,536.3 |
| Current liabilities | 610 | 847.3 | 783.5 |
| 0 % convertible notes (LT) | 3,710 | 1,480.7 | — |
| Lease liabilities (LT) | 160 | 167.8 | 335.9 |
| Total liabilities | 4,480 | 2,515.2 | 1,152.9 |
| Stockholders’ equity | ~5,040 | 4,987.4 | 4,383.4 |
There’s a similar post to this that lives on my profile page and that’s where the updates will live until there’s something significant enough to warrant an additional post.
If you’re interested in this type of analysis but not ready to get into breaking down entire balance sheets, pick a single section of numbers (SGA expenses, Lease liabilities, gross margins, anything really) and do a deep dive on that single number going back through the start of the Cohen era. You’ll probably come up with a more informed number than those of us trying to project the entire balance sheet as it’s a weedsy process and most of us are doing this as a side thing.
At a minimum, I’m hoping to add sections breaking down revenue categories, Switch 2 projections, SGA costs, and a condensed cash flow statement.
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