This is an automated archive made by the Lemmit Bot.

The original was posted on /r/nba by /u/Penguigo on 2025-07-23 20:18:13+00:00.

We are deep in the throes of the off-season. Summer League is over, Cooper Flagg is definitely already a bust (this is a joke, don’t @ me), and for the first time I can remember, Suns fans are envying Charlotte fans.

With nothing better to talk about, we are also seeing regurgitated and half-assed GOAT arguments, as is normal around here. I am not setting out to define who’s the GOAT. Frankly, it’s dumb. But I am here to lay down the law about one of the greatest achievements in the modern NBA, and that’s Lebron making the finals for 8 consecutive years.

I can hear you whining already 'but the East was weak!’ Yes it was, astute redditor. I am not here to refute that. I am here to tell you that winning 24 consecutive In-conference playoff series, the most in NBA history, is an incredible feat even when (mostly) favored.

Methodology: I am using Basketball reference to determine the pre-series line for each of these 24 playoff matchups, and converting that line to likelihood of winning using these formulas AKA the implied probability of winning formulas:

If favored: P = absolute odds / (absolute odds + 100)

Absolute here means we are taking the value and counting how far it is from zero. So -275 would have an absolute value of just 275.

If not favored: P = 100 / (odds + 100)

So for Lebron’s matchup against the Celtics in 2018, the line was -275. This would make the odds: 275 / (275 + 100) = 73.3%.

Once odds for each series are calculated, we multiple them together. This gives us the odds of multiple things all happening. Easy example, if you flip a coin it has .5 chance of heads. If you flip 2 coins, it has .25 chance of both being heads (.5 x .5)

So, here are the odds for all 8 seasons of playoff victories, including the odds of winning all 24 of them.

2018 Eastern Conference First Round: Cleveland Cavaliers (–600) vs Indiana Pacers (+450) — 85.71%

2018 Eastern Conference Semifinals: Toronto Raptors (–190) vs Cleveland Cavaliers (+165) — 37.74% (note: this is the only series Lebron was an underdog)

2018 Eastern Conference Finals: Cleveland Cavaliers (–275) vs Boston Celtics (+235) — 73.33%

2017 Eastern Conference First Round: Cleveland Cavaliers (–1100) vs Indiana Pacers (+700) — 91.67%

2017 Eastern Conference Semifinals: Cleveland Cavaliers (–475) vs Toronto Raptors (+380) — 82.69%

2017 Eastern Conference Finals: Cleveland Cavaliers (–700) vs Boston Celtics (+500) — 88.67%

2016 Eastern Conference First Round: Cleveland Cavaliers (–1700) vs Detroit Pistons (+1100) — 94.44%

2016 Eastern Conference Semifinals: Cleveland Cavaliers (–500) vs Atlanta Hawks (+400) — 83.33%

2016 Eastern Conference Finals: Cleveland Cavaliers (–1350) vs Toronto Raptors (+885) — 93.10%

2015 Eastern Conference First Round: Cleveland Cavaliers (–5000) vs Boston Celtics (+2100) — 98.04%

2015 Eastern Conference Semifinals: Cleveland Cavaliers (–240) vs Chicago Bulls (+200) — 70.59%

2015 Eastern Conference Finals: Cleveland Cavaliers (–190) vs Atlanta Hawks (+165) — 65.52%

2014 Eastern Conference First Round: Miami Heat (–2500) vs Charlotte Bobcats (+1000) — 96.15%

2014 Eastern Conference Semifinals: Miami Heat (–620) vs Brooklyn Nets (+450) — 86.11%

2014 Eastern Conference Finals: Miami Heat (–380) vs Indiana Pacers (+300) — 79.17%

2013 Eastern Conference First Round: Miami Heat (–20000) vs Milwaukee Bucks (+7500) — 99.50% (worst odds I’ve ever seen for an NBA playoff series)

2013 Eastern Conference Semifinals: Miami Heat (–3000) vs Chicago Bulls (+1100) — 96.77%

2013 Eastern Conference Finals: Miami Heat (–850) vs Indiana Pacers (+575) — 89.47%

2012 Eastern Conference First Round: Miami Heat (–900) vs New York Knicks (+650) — 90.00%

2012 Eastern Conference Semifinals: Miami Heat (–950) vs Indiana Pacers (+625) — 90.48%

2012 Eastern Conference Finals: Miami Heat (–530) vs Boston Celtics (+400) — 84.13%

2011 Eastern Conference First Round: Miami Heat (–2500) vs Philadelphia 76ers (+1000) — 96.15%

2011 Eastern Conference Semifinals: Miami Heat (–190) vs Boston Celtics (+165) — 65.52%

2011 Eastern Conference Finals: Miami Heat (–190) vs Chicago Bulls (+160) — 65.52%

Final combined probability of winning all 24 series: ~0.84%, or about 1/120.

TLDR; Winning 24 consecutive In-Conference series, even when favored, is pretty fucking crazy.

Posted from my phone, my apologies for typos or formatting issues.